As another baseball season draws to a close, the Braves seem locked into the National League Wild Card, earning a playoff birth for the second consecutive year. Last year the Braves played the eventual champion Giants as close as anyone; they were preseason darlings this year and remain a chic playoff sleeper. Yet, as the volimunous regular gives way to quick-hitting playoff series', the Braves long-term 2011 chances appear bleaker and bleaker. This is not to write them off. The team has the talent to contend across the board. But playoff baseball is a different animal - in particular, it will turn one of Atlanta's greatest strengths into a notable weakness.
A regular sports bar question in the Deep South is a strikingly simple one: Who do the Braves start in Game 1 of a playoff series? This question is not inherently bad - though Charlie Manuel's answer is obvious, Phillies fans could entertain themselves similarly - but, in searching for an answer, Atlanta fans have to find their confidence shaken.
There is no obvious answer, not at one, not at two; no where do the pieces perfectly fit. That is because the Braves, for all their seemingly limitless depth at starting pitcher, don't have the top-line guys to match up with most contenders. Seven quality starters is wonderful for a long season, but three of those guys do no good in October. The Braves have several aces but no Ace, no Cy Young contender to stand toe-to-toe with the Lincecums, Halladays, Lees and Becketts who folklorically punch through autumnal lineups.
After a rock solid start, the Braves rotation was punctured up the middle after the All-Star break. Injuries and ineffectiveness have turned what was undoubtedly the best 1-5 in the game prior to the break into a big question mark come playoff time. So who goes first?
The Candidates
6. Mike Minor
Mike Minor - a former top prospect, and still highly regarded lefty- is the likeliest candidate to get pulled from the rotation (it's a sure thing if everyone's healthy). He's looked good lately, but something will have gone wrong if he makes a postseason start.
5. Derek Lowe
The Opening Day starter was mediocre all year, then went through the ringer in July. He was the hottest guy in baseball last year, and pitched very well in two losses to the Giants last season. He's also the most battle-tested, pitching in several crucial games for the Red Sox in 2004. Unfortunately, he's 38, and he's been pretty bad this year. He's also the only Braves starter with major bullpen experience. Logically, it makes the most sense to pull him from the rotation come playoff time.
4? Tommy Hanson
Hanson, the young phenom who is supposed to be the big Ace, went down to a shoulder injury on August 6th. A couple setbacks later, Dr. James Andrews found slight rotator cuff tear. This was good news, and Hanson is supposed to return soon, no one knows for sure what to expect from this point forward. Even before the injury, Hanson was no true #1, faltering too often in the middle innings with command and homer problems. If he's healthy, he's shown huge potential. This year, he's a wild card.
3. Jair Jurrjens
Jair Jurrjens, the gem of the early season with a microscopic ERA (after starting the season late with an injury), came back from a second DL stint looking increasingly human. Jurrjens is a talented young pitcher, but he is hittable and doesn't miss many bats. Pitching out of trouble isn't a talent, and only elite strikeout guys are able to continuously limit damage with runners seemingly always on base. Jurrjens has regressed, as expected, and still doesn't look completely healthy (Update: he's getting an MRI on his knee) on the mound. Even at full strength, he's much closer to his 3.50 career ERA than the sub 2.00 master we saw in the early summer. Unless he's on another otherworldy hot streak, he can't really be counted on at the top of a rotation.
2. Brandon Beachy
Rookie Brandon Beachy is a strikeout machine, and might have the best raw numbers on the staff. Beachy should have a long career ahead of him, and its tempting to buck conventional wisdom and go with the young gun as the frontline starter. But Beachy's hard throwing sometimes keeps him from getting far into games, which could tax the bullpen early in a series, and he gives up a lot more homers than the guy with very similar numbers. He's also in his first big-league season. He's already spent some time on the DL, and rookies tend to wear down as they surpass their career-high in innings pitched.
1. Tim Hudson
Take out strikeouts, and Hudson is right there with Beachy. He's also much more experienced, with nine career postseason starts. His 3.46 postseason ERA is not top-shelf, but he's usually capable of keeping a team in it for six or seven good innings. It's seems obvious that Fredi Gonzalez will use him first, as it's the least controversial decision. You could do a lot worse than Tim Hudson, but he's probably not gonna throw a team on his shoulders.
If current division standings hold, the Braves will have some luck on their side in the first round. The Braves struggle mightily against left-handed pitchers, but both Arizona (Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Josh Collmenter) and Milwaukee (Zach Greinke, Shawn Marcum, Yovani Gallardo) feature three righties at the top of their rotations. Milwaukee could sub in Randy Wolf (11-9, 3.58 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) to play the match-up, but the Braves will still have the left/right advantage on their side in either series. Of course, the problem is that all six are all better than any pitcher on Atlanta, except a healthy Hanson or locked in Hudson. With no dominant seasons emerging from the Braves, the regular season depth becomes postseason mediocrity.
The bullpen should not be overlooked, as O'Flaherty, Venters and Kimbrel are as good as it gets in the 7th, 8th and 9th. But the Braves have to get there with the lead first. As the pitching staff limps to the finish, a formerly dominant rotation will now just try to get by in the first round, much less worry about matching up with the Phillies Four Horsemen, featuring three Cy Young candidates and a recovering Roy Oswalt.
Ideally, the Braves turn back to mid-season form at the right time and a Hudson/Hanson/Beachy/Jurrjens quartet allows each guy to throw on ample rest and gives Atlanta a real shot. But Hanson and Jurrjens are no guarantee, healthwise. The Braves should have the luxury of setting their rotation before the postseason begins; unfortunately, this is hardly an advantage.
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